Broker clients choosing fixed rates as rate hike concerns rise

Broker Clients Choosing Fixed Rates as Rate Hike Concerns Rise

Mark Stevenson, Managing Director at Evolve Lending and Finance (formerly Bell Partners Finance), was featured in The Adviser in November 2025 reporting a notable pick-up in client inquiries about switching to fixed rate home loans, driven not by confidence that rates would fall further but by concern that the easing cycle may have already ended and that the next move could be upward.

With the cash rate having held at 3.6 per cent since the August cut, Evolve Lending and Finance was seeing clients increasingly opt for one-year fixed options. In most cases, Mark noted, those clients were saving around 0.25 per cent compared to their variable rate and avoiding the discharge and application fees that come with switching lenders. Headline inflation had jumped to 3.8 per cent and the trimmed mean had risen to 3.3 per cent, both above the RBA’s 2 to 3 per cent target, giving the central bank reason to hold at its December meeting rather than cut. Mark’s assessment was direct: there was no prospect of further rate cuts in 2025, economists were not expecting any relief in the first half of 2026, and the risk of rate rises in 2026 could not be ruled out, making the period ahead challenging for mortgage holders.

That outlook was reinforced by NAB’s chief economist Sally Auld, who told brokers in a webinar that the rate-cutting cycle appeared to be over. With inflation still elevated, a fully employed labour market, and growth trending back to normal, it was difficult to argue that the economy needed lower rates. Auld noted the RBA itself was uncertain about whether the current 3.6 per cent setting was restrictive, neutral or even mildly supportive, and until it resolved that question it was unlikely to do much. While a rate hike was not in NAB’s base forecast, she described it as a risk worth watching and said she was “comfortable sitting here telling you that I think the rate cut cycle is over.” ANZ was forecasting just one final 25 basis point cut in early 2026. Fixed-rate loan uptake had been at record lows through the year, with AFG’s October data showing fixed loans represented just 1.8 per cent of broker lodgements in the September quarter. But as lenders also began raising fixed rates, with 18 having increased at least one fixed rate since November 1 against just 9 that had cut, the window for locking in a competitive fixed rate was narrowing.

If you are considering whether a fixed rate is the right option for your situation right now, contact Evolve Lending & Finance for advice tailored to your circumstances.