No fooling around – rate cuts off the table in April

No Fooling Around – Rate Cuts Off the Table in April

Mark Stevenson, Managing Director at Bell Partners Finance (now Evolve Lending & Finance), was featured in Broker Daily in March 2025 confirming that the RBA’s April 1 meeting was all but certain to result in a hold, with the cash rate widely expected to remain at 4.1 per cent following the February cut.

The February decision had brought the rate down from 4.35 per cent, but the board’s own meeting minutes made clear that the move did not commit members to further reductions at subsequent meetings. Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis summed up the prevailing view among analysts: back-to-back cuts in February and April were never on the table, and cutting again so soon would have been damaging to the RBA’s credibility. A May cut remained expected, contingent on the quarterly inflation data due in late April.

Mark acknowledged that while there had been positive movement on inflation, with the annual CPI figure slowing to 2.4 per cent and now sitting well within the 2 to 3 per cent target range, most economists were not expecting the RBA to follow through with another cut in April. The next round of quarterly data, which would be more meaningful for the board’s decision-making, was not available before the April meeting. The May 19 to 20 board meeting, which would fall after the federal election, was the next realistic window. Mark also flagged that the federal budget had announced $1.8 billion in energy rebates extended until the end of the year, another variable the RBA would need to factor into its inflation outlook, and noted that the ongoing uncertainty created by Trump’s trade policies could never be fully discounted.

If you want to understand what the current rate environment means for your home loan, contact Evolve Lending & Finance for a review.