November now seen as earliest window for RBA rate shift

November Now Seen as Earliest Window for RBA Rate Shift

Mark Stevenson, Managing Director at Bell Partners Finance (now Evolve Lending & Finance), was featured in Mortgage Professional Australia on September 30, 2025 as the RBA’s board meeting concluded with a widely expected hold at 3.6 per cent, with attention turning firmly toward November 4 as the next realistic date for a rate move.

Mark noted that the major banks had aligned on holding in September, with November 4 considered the more likely moment for further good news for borrowers. Westpac, he added, was expecting another half a percentage point of cuts in 2026. He also highlighted that governor Michele Bullock had credited the three rate cuts delivered so far in 2025 with supporting consumer confidence, pointing to the strong property market as a tangible example of that stimulus flowing through to the economy. All 32 economists surveyed in Finder’s RBA Cash Rate Survey had expected the September hold, and the four major banks had each ruled out a September move. CBA, Westpac and ANZ were maintaining November as their base case, while NAB had pushed its forecast back further, now not expecting a cut until May next year.

Canstar’s data showed that a potential November cut would reduce monthly repayments on a $600,000 loan by approximately $87. Across all four cuts delivered in 2025, the cumulative reduction on that same loan would amount to $359 per month. However, Canstar’s data insights director Sally Tindall cautioned that a November cut was not a certainty, and made the point that the most reliable rate cut is one a borrower negotiates themselves, either by switching to a more competitive lender or pushing their current bank for a better deal. With the average variable rate sitting around 5.53 per cent, she suggested that anyone not already well below that mark should be asking why. Two further RBA meetings were scheduled for the remainder of the year, on November 3 and 4, and December 8 and 9.

If you want to find out whether your current home loan rate is competitive without waiting for the next RBA decision, contact Evolve Lending & Finance for a review.