Mark Stevenson
Mark is the Managing Director of Evolve Lending & Finance. Mark held senior roles in asset finance, consumer credit risk analysis, finance advisory and mortgage broking.
RBA to announce April cash rate decision
RBA to Announce April Cash Rate Decision
Mark Stevenson, Managing Director at Bell Partners Finance (now Evolve Lending & Finance), was featured in The Adviser on April 1, 2025 ahead of the RBA’s April cash rate decision, noting that another cut was unlikely despite encouraging inflation data showing the headline CPI slowing to 2.4 per cent and the trimmed mean falling to 2.7 per cent.
The April meeting was significant for a structural reason as well: it was the first sitting of the RBA’s new Monetary Policy Board, a dedicated body for setting the cash rate following a review that found the existing board had been comprised mainly of members with business rather than economic backgrounds. Markets were pricing just an 8 per cent chance of a cut, and all four major banks were forecasting a hold. Westpac’s chief economist Luci Ellis had noted that back-to-back cuts would never have been on the table given the RBA’s hawkish rhetoric in February. CBA agreed, describing the RBA’s tone since the February cut as “modestly hawkish” and expecting a more dovish statement to accompany the hold rather than any immediate action.
Mark’s read was consistent with that view. While inflation was now well within the 2 to 3 per cent target range, the more critical quarterly inflation data would not be available until late April, making the May 19 to 20 meeting the next realistic window for a decision. He also noted that the federal budget had introduced a further $1.8 billion in energy rebates until the end of the year, which the RBA would need to factor into its outlook. And as with earlier assessments, Mark maintained that the ongoing trade war driven by US tariffs remained a variable that could never be fully discounted: “The Trump factor can never be discounted.” Among the major banks, CBA, Westpac and NAB were all forecasting a May cut, while ANZ was looking to August.
If you want to understand what the current rate environment means for your borrowing position, contact Evolve Lending & Finance for a review.
